On the opening day of COP30 in Brazil an update to the UN Climate Change’s 2025 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report shows that the global emissions curve is beginning to bend downwards. Based on these new figures, global greenhouse gas emissions are projected to fall by around 12% in 2035 compared to 2019 levels. This is clearly to be welcomed but nonetheless falls far short of the global goal needed to avert catastrophic climate change. In a recent interview UN secretary general António Guterres confirmed that humanity has already failed to limit global heating to 1.5°C, saying that it is inevitable that the planet will overshoot the key target set out in the Paris climate agreement, and above which devastating consequences are anticipated. As Guterres explained, to stay within a 1.5°C increase a 60% reduction in emissions is needed, five times the level indicated by those NDCs received so far. Although it may still be possible to bring temperatures down to return to at or below the 1.5°C threshold by the end of the century, at least a temporary overshoot is now certain.
Recovery, however, seems at best uncertain. Many of the world’s nations have failed to send in climate action plans and the US, one of the globe’s biggest emitters, has abandoned the process entirely. At the same time a new IPSOS survey covering some 40,000 people across 50 nations indicates that climate change is falling back in its significance in terms of the major concerns for people. The Forest Stewardship Council (FSC) 2025 Global Consumer Awareness Survey reported a sharp slide in public concern for climate change as war and conflict now dominate. This finding comes even after the hottest year ever and a decade of tumbling records as the planet seemingly inexorably heats up.
Nuclear clearly has a role to play in addressing climate change as part of a full suite of solutions that includes renewables, storage, and energy efficiency, as well as a general move to the electrification of transport and industry. And there is growing evidence that nuclear is indeed starting to fulfil that promise. Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) and speaking during his recent keynote address at the World Nuclear Exhibition in Paris, stated that nuclear generation has reached its highest ever level, even while 70 GW of new nuclear construction is currently underway worldwide. While this is the highest construction tally in three decades, Birol also noted that 40 newcomer nations are now exploring nuclear power plants.
Birol summarised the situation succinctly, declaring “Nuclear is back” and suggesting a golden age of nuclear not seen since the 1970s and 1980s. was on the horizon.
However, Birol also flagged one of the key challenges that must be overcome by the industry. He noted that in most countries around the world, where nuclear power plants are built they are completed with an average eight-year delay. This is fundamental if nuclear is to not only contribute to an on-going clean energy future, but do so in a timely way. Putting this challenge in context, ahead of COP30, the Council of Europe reaffirmed the EU’s goal of achieving a net reduction of 55% in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. It also introduced an indicative reduction of 66.25% to 72.5% by 2035 as a key waypost on the path towards carbon neutrality by 2050. But in considering this the industry must ask, in 2035 – scarcely a decade from now – how much more will nuclear realistically be able to contribute to the clean energy needs of Europe? For nuclear to truly ‘be back’ at the top table of energy choices and capitalise on the current resurgence in interest and investment, it must come up with a bold answer.
