SMRs are expected to provide over 3% of nuclear capacity and generation worldwide by 2035, marking their transition from experimental and pioneering efforts to commercial-scale contributions. A new, very comprehensive, study by GlobalData, SMR Power Market, Update 2026 – Market Size, Segmentation, Major Trends, and Key Country Analysis to 2035, says that, as SMR share approaches 5–6% by 2040, “they are projected to play nontrivial roles in meeting energy demand, decarbonization goals, and grid flexibility of many countries”.
The 110-page report looks at the types of SMRs being developed, the progress being made in key countries and identifies the drivers and restraints affecting their deployment. “If projections are held, SMRs will move in the next 15 years from niche demonstrations to integral pieces of the nuclear and broader clean energy landscape,” it says. It takes a realistic look at the difficulties facing many of the ambitious SMR projects now being developed worldwide.
Key drivers are energy security and diversification; decarbonisation; their compatibility with renewable energy sources; data centre development, the need for industrial heat and hydrogen production; and the reuse of retired coal-fired plant sites. Restraints include first-of-a-kind (FOAK) cost and finance; regulation and licensing; supply chain maturity; waste management and decommissioning; and revenue uncertainty.
Light-water SMRs have become the near-term backbone of most deployment strategies, benefitting from decades of licensing experience, established safety cases, and vendor readiness. These designs are advancing through regulatory evaluation or have secured vendor commitments.
Emerging technologies such as high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs), liquid-metal fast reactors (LMFRs), molten salt reactors (MSRs), and microreactors are positioned for applications requiring process heat, hydrogen production, or provision of power in remote or off-grid locations. They promise higher thermal efficiency, lower-pressure systems, or simplified safety systems, but are farther from serial deployment. “Investment and regulatory focus must support component qualification, fuel supply scaling, and safety performance demonstration for these advanced categories to realize commercial potential. Until then many of these designs will serve as niche rather than mainstream options.”
China and Russia are the leading countries in SMR development due to strong industrial capacity, state coordination, and experience with diverse reactor technologies. These markets have already moved some SMRs into construction or demonstration and benefit from supplier ecosystems capable of scaling rapidly. The US shows growing pipeline strength with substantial announced projects, regulatory reform, and public funding, but deployment remains limited by FOAK risk, fuel availability and supply chain readiness. The UK, Canada, and Central and Eastern European states are ramping up regulation and procurement but still face cost and regulatory timing pressures. Emerging markets in Asia-Pacific, Latin America, and Southeast Asia are interested in SMRs for remote grids, industrial heat, and energy access but have less mature regulatory institutions, limited domestic manufacturing of critical components, nascent fuel cycle infrastructure, and less experience with large nuclear projects.
Many reactor types remain FOAK with limited commercial validation. Design pathways vary in fuel requirements, materials technology, and thermal operating regimes. “Because of this diversity, stakeholders must establish clear criteria for safety, cost, manufacturability, supply chain viability, and regulatory acceptability to choose designs for investment.”
Technologies such as HTGRs, and MSRs face elevated technical risk because of novel materials, complex fuel handling, and thermal property uncertainties. As a result, near-term SMR deployments will rely heavily on designs with greater existing maturity such as light-water SMRs, which benefit from established regulatory precedents and more developed supply chains. “Overall scaling of SMRs depends on aligning thousands of small and large decisions across technology, regulation, finance, industry and society over the coming decade.”
Over 95 percent of the global SMR pipeline remains in preliminary stages, demonstrating the wide gap between planning aspirations and physical deployment. Currently some 1,008 MWe of SMR capacity across nine projects is actively under construction, while about 620 MWe over 11 projects have secured financing. “The vast majority of SMR ambitions, however, are still in the permitting or announcement stage,” the report notes. Approximately 20,676 MWe spread over 105 projects are currently navigating permit and regulatory reviews, and 31,614 MWe across 282 projects exists solely as announced proposals without formal agreements or construction underway.
The SMR pipeline in the US remains ambitious but with most announced capacity is still climbing a long development curve. Of 6,770 MWe across 81 projects, just 420 MWe in four projects are under construction with another 320 MWe in nine projects financed. Approximately 1,840 MWe in 16 projects are navigating permitting, with the rest still in the announced phase.
This shows that the US SMR industry has moved beyond pure promise in a few instances, but well over 80% of capacity remains in approved or preliminary phases. “Whether the US can begin substantial SMR deployment by the early to mid-2030s will rest on successful regulatory approvals, access to capital, supply chain scaling, fuel readiness especially for unique fuels like HALEU (high-assay low-enriched uranium), and the performance of these early movers.”
The production and qualification of HALEU, required for many advanced SMR designs, remains a bottleneck. Current US domestic capacity is minimal. Meanwhile the Prohibiting Russian Uranium Imports Act has eliminated a major channel for enriched uranium, increasing pressure to develop domestic enrichment, fabrication, and fuel cycle infrastructure in parallel with reactor deployment. “Unsynchronized timelines across reactor developers, fuel suppliers, and component manufacturers raise fears of stranded capital or delayed projects.”
Canada is transitioning from theoretical planning to actual SMR deployment with the Darlington BWRX-300 project expected to enter commercial service by 2030. Federal SMR programmes are providing funding. However, fuel is a major constraint with HALEU supply, enrichment, fuel conversion and qualification limited domestically. Component fabrication needs industrial scale-up and skilled labour is scarce in many regions while FOAK cost premiums are substantial.
Europe has placed SMRs and advanced modular reactors (AMRs) at the heart of its energy transition strategy, aiming to modernise energy systems, reduce dependence on imported fuels, and phase down carbon emissions. Despite this, European SMR deployment faces constraints. Regulatory and licensing complexity remains high, due to the plurality of national regulatory bodies across the EU, differing safety standards, environmental review norms, and grid integration rules.
Of the entire European SMR landscape, approximately 434 MWe across three projects are under construction, and only 300 MWe across two projects have secured financing. Meanwhile, permitting remains a substantial bottleneck, with over 17,251 MWe dispersed among 74 projects in that phase, and another 13,375 MWe across 121 projects still in the announced category. In sum, Europe’s SMR outlook is ambitious but the bridge between proposal and production remains long, filled with regulatory, financial, technical, and political uncertainties. “For Europe to deliver on its SMR capacity ambitions, the key will be converting permitted and announced projects especially among BWR and PWR classes into financed and built capacity.”
In the UK, the SMR programme continues to build momentum, with most of the planned capacity already moving through regulatory channels. Approximately 9,000 MWe across 25 projects are in the permitting phase which is more than two‐thirds of the visible pipeline while 4,820 MWe spread across 47 projects remain announced. Overall, the UK SMR framework is focused on PWR designs, with considerable regulatory movement for those units. Other reactor types are present mainly as expressions of interest or early permitting.
The rise in permitted projects signals tangible advancement toward execution, even though few have yet secured full financing or initiated construction. “If current permitting‐stage projects proceed without major delays and announced projects transition into financed and constructed status, the UK is well‐placed to deliver on its clean energy and nuclear capacity goals through the early to mid‐2030s.” However, delays in licensing, infrastructure readiness, or investor confidence could slow the pace substantially.
China has already deployed or is very close to deploying several SMR and advanced reactor types. China’s SMR landscape is showing increased momentum, though much of the capacity remains in early stages. China is among the fastest moving SMR markets globally. China’s expansion in marine, district heating, and industrial heat reactors adds diversity to its portfolio.
“If projects stay on track, China is likely to have multiple SMRs operational in varied roles—baseload, industrial heat, district heating and begin exporting SMR technologies or securing foreign installations. Domestic cost declines are probable via serial manufacture. SMRs may become integrated into China’s climate strategy more broadly, helping to reduce coal dependency in interior provinces and supporting carbon neutrality path.”
Russia is among the few countries already operating floating SMRs and moving toward land-based deployment. The BREST-OD-300 lead-cooled fast reactor is also under construction with expected startup in 2028-2029. Regulatory licensing for Russia’s land-based SMR projects is in place, and export road maps are being established.
This progression suggests that Russia already has a SMR or advanced reactor infrastructure giving it a head start early in the timeline. The more rapid capacity growth beginning in the late 2020s reflects entry into commercial deployment, as regulatory approvals, financing, and supply chains mature.
“Key enablers in Russia’s case likely include its established nuclear reactor industry, long-standing regulatory institutions familiar with fast-spectrum and advanced reactor types, domestic fuel and component supply chains, and a centralized planning environment. Constraints may include export restrictions, geopolitical risk, public acceptance in some regions, technical risk in more novel reactor concepts, and necessary financing discipline to scale projects.”
If Russia can deliver on those commercial-ready reactors entering service by 2028–2030 and subsequently build reliably, it is positioned to hold meaningful SMR capacity (2–3 GW) by 2040, contributing both to domestic low-carbon electricity and potentially to export or regional deployment.
Challenges for Russia include international sanctions which can impede procurement of specialised components, foreign currency financing, and technology transfers; logistical and infrastructure challenges in extremely remote or harsh geographies; managing perception of safety, environmental and fuel-cycle risks; and ensuring economic competitiveness of SMRs in comparison with other power sources, especially in export markets. However, barring unforeseen geopolitical or economic barriers, Russia is likely to have a portfolio of SMRs in operation by 2032-2035, particularly in remote and industrial regions.
