The Cabinet of South Africa has approved the final draft Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2025) mapping out the electricity mix, aiming to balance supply and demand while considering environmental impact and the cost of electricity. It represents a ZAR2,230bn ($95.4bn) investment that will define South Africa’s energy mix for the future.
The roadmap, announced by Minister of Electricity and Energy Dr Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, introduces a diversified energy mix and positions nuclear power as a key component in South Africa’s long-term strategy. Due to the long lead time, there is no provision for nuclear within the 2030 timeline and no new coal.
The plan provides for the addition of 11 270 MWe of solar photovoltaic (PV) and 7 340 MWe of wind capacity by 2030, as well as 6 000 MWe of gas-to-power, 3,100 MWe of storage and 5,400 MWe of distributed energy (behind the meter).
However, towards 2039, the plan relies heavily on 16 000 MWe of gas-to-power and provides for an additional 5,200 MWe of nuclear generation to balance the intermittent renewables. Duynefontein near Koeberg and Thyspunt near St Francis Bay in the Eastern Cape were earlier planned for new nuclear projects.
The door has been left open to increase nuclear provision to 10,000 MWe, which will be further explored in a Nuclear Industrialisation Plan to determine the minimum capacity to support the development of the entire nuclear fuel cycle value chain within the country.
By 2039, South Africa’s energy mix will consist of: 27% coal generation (down from 58%), 24% wind (up from 8%), 18% solar PV (up from 10%), and 11% gas-to-power (up from virtually zero). Distributed generation, which is expected to be largely rooftop solar, will make up 8% of capacity, with nuclear contributing 5% (up from 2.5%), storage (mostly batteries) 4%, and pumped storage 3%. The rest will be made up of several small contributions from other energy sources.
Overall, IRP2025 envisages building 105,000 MWe of new generation capacity between now and 2039 – more than double the current generation capacity of state power company Eskom (50,230 MWe). Dr Ramokgopa stressed that the generation build-out would be state-led, saying that “an overreliance on the market” had previously failed to ensure security of supply. The state will therefore continue to run large-scale procurement bid windows even as work progresses on establishing a Wholesale Electricity Market in line with new energy legislation.
However, he acknowledged two key constraints – limited engineering skills and a weakened construction industry – but said government remained committed to rebuilding both sectors. “We’re talking about growth, industrialisation, new skills, and resuscitating collapsed industries,” he said. “For as long as the lights are off, we will undermine our potential. This plan constructs a story about how we’re going to get the South African economy back on its feet.”
Commenting on the reduction in coal, Dr Ramokgopa said: “We are going to get cleaner, (but) we are not abandoning coal. We don’t have a coal problem; we have an emission problem.” He added that state power company Eskom had been instructed to construct a “clean coal” demonstration plant by 2030 that uses cheaper and more efficient technologies to remove sulphur dioxide from exhaust gases.
Dr Ramokgopa said the plan will be funded by the private sector, off government’s balance sheet. The government “will be the offtaker” of the electricity. He vowed that government procurement will not be stop-start in nature and mentioned the possibility of mega procurement rounds.
IRP2025 is an update to the contentious draft IRP released in 2023, which slashed the planned installation of solar and wind power. The planned increase in nuclear capacity comes 10 years after the Zuma government’s controversial agreement with Rosatom to build eight nuclear units, which was later killed by the courts. Ramokgopa has pledged transparency in nuclear procurement.
Included in the plans is a revival of South Africa’s Pebble Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR) project (a high-temperature helium-cooled reactor), which was shelved after investments of ZAR12bn. South Africa began developing the PBMR in the 1990s, but in 2010, the government ceased funding for the project due to a lack of viable customers or investors, leading to significant staff reductions and ultimately halting development efforts. PBMR was put into care and maintenance and was reincorporated into Eskom in 2012.
Officials confirmed that the Cabinet will be asked to support the reopening of the PBMR centre at Pelindaba. The PBMR technology, currently under care and maintenance at Eskom, will be transferred to the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (Necsa) to revitalise local nuclear innovation and test its competitiveness against emerging global small modular reactor (SMR) designs.
The Nuclear Industry Association of South Africa (NIASA) welcomed the inclusion of nuclear in the IRP. According to NIASA, the plan opens new opportunities for the sector through:
- Support for localisation of supply chains and manufacturing for nuclear components and infrastructure;
- Collaboration in skills development and training initiatives to prepare a new generation of nuclear professionals;
- Engaging transparently in nuclear licensing, safety assurance and public participation processes to build trust and uphold world-class regulatory standards;
- Partnering with government and financiers to unlock economic spin-offs from nuclear investment, including employment, innovation and regional cooperation in Africa; and
- Support for public awareness campaigns and community engagement, promoting understanding of nuclear safety, waste management and environmental stewardship.
Industry stakeholders, including Eskom, the South African Nuclear Energy Corporation (Necsa), iThemba LABS, and the National Radioactive Waste Disposal Institute (NRWDI), are expected to play central roles in delivering these projects.
However, analysts note that execution will depend heavily on financing, procurement transparency and policy consistency. These are areas where previous energy plans have fallen short.
NIASA stressed the importance of:
- Establishing robust financing mechanisms and transparent procurement frameworks that ensure value for money;
- Maintaining a strong regulatory environment for nuclear safety, security and Non-Proliferation;
- Ensuring consistent policy certainty and interdepartmental coordination to accelerate project delivery;
- Strengthening inter-institutional collaboration between government, industry and research entities such as Necsa, iThemba LABS, and NRWDI to maximise innovation and capacity.
“NIASA will continue advocating for policy coherence, regional collaboration, and the mobilisation of both domestic and international financing to support Africa’s equitable participation in the global nuclear renaissance,” said the organisation.
The IRP2025’s support for nuclear comes as South Africa works to balance its Just Energy Transition with the need for reliable, affordable power. Projects such as life extension for the two reactors at the existing Koeberg NPP and the proposed New Build Programme are expected to contribute to decarbonisation while sustaining industrial output and employment.
