The International Atomic Energy Agency has released its latest projections for energy, electricity and nuclear power trends up to 2050. Compared with the previous year, the 2020 projections are largely unchanged. Under the high case scenario, IAEA analysts expect an increase of global nuclear electrical generating capacity by 82% to 715GW. Under the low case scenario, it will fall by 7% to 392GW.
“The latest IAEA annual projections show that nuclear power will continue to play a key role in the world’s low-carbon energy mix, with global nuclear electrical capacity seen nearly doubling by 2050 in our high case scenario. Climate change mitigation remains a key potential driver for maintaining and expanding the use of nuclear power,” said IAEA director general Rafael Mariano Grossi.
The 40th edition of Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050 provides detailed global trends in nuclear power by region. The report presents its projections for nuclear electrical generating capacity as low and high estimates. They reflect different scenarios for the worldwide deployment of this low carbon energy source.
From 2019 to 2050, global electricity generation is expected to more than double, exceeding nuclear generation capacity growth also in the high case scenario. Therefore, IAEA experts expect the share of nuclear power amongst all sources of electricity to remain either stable or decline. In 2019 nuclear power generated 10.4% of global electricity.
The report said "immediate and concerted action" is required for nuclear power to reach a share of 11% in electricity production by 2050, as seen in the high case scenario. In the low case scenario, the share of nuclear energy relative to global electricity production could decline to about 6%.
Commitments made under the 2016 Paris Agreement on climate change and other initiatives could support nuclear power development, provided the necessary energy policies and market designs are established to facilitate investments in dispatchable, low carbon technologies. Furthermore, nuclear power could provide solutions for electricity consumption growth, air quality concerns, the security of energy supply and price volatility of other fuels.
The report noted that about two-thirds of nuclear power reactors have been in operation for over 30 years, highlighting the need for significant new nuclear capacity to offset retirements. Uncertainty remains regarding the replacement of the large number of reactors scheduled to be retired around 2030 and beyond, particularly in North America and Europe. Ageing management programmes and long term operation are being implemented for an increasing number of reactors.
Since it was first published 40 years ago, the IAEA projections have been continually refined to reflect an evolving global energy context. Over the past decade, nuclear power development has remained within the range of projections described in prior editions.