Of course, nuclear power delivers low-carbon, reliable electricity and is increasingly seen as a critical adjunct to variable renewable energy sources. But is that really enough to propel the industry to the new heights of growth that are widely anticipated.
The IAEA recently identified some key trends that show how nuclear energy uptake is evolving and therefore what we might conceivably expect for the year ahead.
It’s gratifying reading. According to IAEA projections, global nuclear power capacity could double by 2050. Should this projection come to pass, the installed nuclear base would reach between 561 GWe and 992 GWe and would cement the nuclear sector’s position as a key element of the clean energy transition. Putting that into perspective, the world’s 416 operating reactors currently deliver just over 376 GWe but supply about a fifth of all low-carbon electricity. Although this is actually down on the 2024 figures, when 421 operating reactors had a total capacity of 377 GWe and generated 2617 TWh of electricity, there are currently 63 reactors under construction worldwide. Once complete, these units will add more than 66 GWe to the global fleet. This is not only impressive, more significantly it puts nuclear in a place comparable with the development rates not seen since before the Fukushima-Daichi disaster of 2011. It must be recognised that this growth is still far short of the number of new builds seen in the golden years of the 1970s and 1980s, but it does show that many countries are now investing in nuclear energy. Indeed, perhaps more telling than the actual number of units under construction are the number of nuclear newcomer nations that are actively pursuing the power of the atom.
Nuclear power plants are already operational in 31 countries worldwide but will almost certainly be joined by many others when considering the nuclear horizon out to 2050. Several are expected to join the nuclear club within the next decade or so. Egypt, for example, is constructing four nuclear reactors, Bangladesh is building its first two and Türkiye is well underway in its construction of four reactors. Over 50 countries also already utilise nuclear technology in about 220 research reactors. And, regional transmission grids that span Europe mean that many countries that are nominally nuclear free also depend on nuclear power to keep the lights on. That may well become an evolving trend in regions such as Africa and Asia as markets become more interconnected and nuclear power makes a larger contribution.
Nuclear is also making progress in sectors beyond electricty. In 2024, the IAEA says, nuclear reactors provided some 2644 GWh of heat for district heating (94.1%), industrial heating (4.1%) and desalination (1.9%). And, while China and Russia lead in these non-electric applications, there are positive signs that other nations will embrace nuclear for district heating or other industrial heat applications. Industry is also set to present a new investment channel for nuclear, for instance large data centre players are embracing nuclear as a source of reliable and low-carbon generation that can meet their rapidly expanding needs.
When new modular technologies, advanced reactors and fuel cycles, the COP28 pledge to triple capacity, and the recognition of nuclear as a low-carbon resource by bodies such as the EU and the World Bank are also taken into consideration, the groundswell behind nuclear appears unstoppable.
A look back at 2025 is instructive and, taken as a whole, it would be a foolhardy gambler that would bet against a nuclear market more bouyant now than in many of the decades previously. New technologies, new markets, new industries, new build, and a happy new year.
