Without the newly built power plants, and in particular by new nuclear units, the Czech Republic will have no place to take electricity in the future, said Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Karel Havlícek on 21 October. The evaluation of the electricity system up to 2040 (Mid-term Adequacy Forecast - MAF CZ 2019) published on 18 October by high-voltage grid operator CEPS, shows that if the situation is not resolved, the Czech Republic, currently a power exporter, would gradually become dependent on imports of electricity after 2030. The minister said that the new data show that the planned construction of a new unit at the Dukovany NPP would not be enough and discussion on the extension of the Temelín NPP must also begin within five years. Havlícek affirmed that the second most important source in the future will be renewable sources in the Czech Republic, as coal is to be phased out.
The Czech Republic’s six nuclear reactors generate about one-third of its electricity. These comprise four VVER-440 units at Dukovany and two VVER-1000 units are at Temelín. The country is phasing out its coal-fired power plants and will need to increase the share of nuclear power if it is to remain self-sufficient in electricity supply. The government's long-term energy strategy, adopted in 2015, sees the share of nuclear power in the electricity mix increasing by 20-25% to 50-55% by 2050. Czech utility CEZ has said it expects to operate the four Dukovany units until 2045 and 2047, and the two Temelín units until 2060 and 2062.
Data from the Energy Regulatory Office (ERO) show that electricity consumption in the Czech Republic increased by 0.2% year on year to 73.9 TWh in 2018 - the highest value since 1981, when data first became available. Production increased by 1.1% to 88 TWh last year with brown coal-fired power plants accounting for the largest share (43 percent). Electricity exports increased by 9.3% to 25.5 TWh while imports fell by 23.2% to 11.6 TWh. Most electricity was exported to Slovakia and Austria, while Germany and Poland accounted for the largest imports. However, MAF CZ 2019 shows that by 2040 the Czech Republic will see a significant decrease in production with plants needing to be replaced.
Two scenarios are under consideration. Scenario A (baseline) envisages a total reduction of 6342 megawatts (MW) of fossil (coal) sources, a decrease in installed nuclear capacity to 2137 MW and the development of renewable energy sources (RES) of 6560 MW. Scenario B, the the low carbon scenario, includes an overall reduction in coal resources of 7818 MW. The installed nuclear and RES capacity is the same as in scenario A. Neither scenario envisages the continued operation of the Dukovany NPP.
Havlícek pointed out that the CEPS scenarios are optimistic in terms of renewables, but do not take into account a possible extension of the operation of the Dukovany NPP. On the construction of a new 1,200MWe unit at Dukovany, he stressed that this was not replacement capacity but the first phase of adding new units. “We must aim at extending the life of the first four units until 2045-2048. This is technically feasible. If we build a new bloc in parallel, we will then have 3200MWe in Dukovany. “Eventually we will have to replace the current blocks. In the next five years, we are going to discuss further expansion and I’m sure this will include the extension of Temelin, where there is capacity for new blocs. Meanwhile, we will follow developments in the field of small modular reactors, according to all indications the first could be installed sometime between 2025 and 2030. CEZ has already signed a cooperation agreement with the US NuScale, which is developing them.”
However, he warned that it would be “a great risk” to wait for the small reactors. “Now we have to go after the "big" foundation, small blocks may eventually function as a complement in the future.” He said models suggested that after 2040, there may be a critical energy shortage in East European countries that are still dependent on coal, including the Czech Republic, unless the nuclear foundation is built. He admitted that it might be difficult to achieve 50% nuclear by 2050 and “it is more likely that it will be a little less” depending on the reduction in coal plants. “Putting it together, by 2050 we could aim for 45-50% as a nuclear foundation, about 30% renewables, 15% gas, with 5-10% still open.”
Havlícek did not think the Czech Republic could be carbon neutral by 2050. “I am almost sure that this is not realistic even for the vast majority of European countries. Ambition is one thing, and it is right to have it, but we cannot confuse it with real possibilities. We need to look at the structure of the economy to see if we can make it technically. It is not just about us, for example, Poland today has about 80% of coal-fired power, and it is quite certain that it cannot push it to zero in 30 years. But to be clear, we agree with the Paris Agreement, we aim to fulfill it with reservations …. But I refuse to commit to something we can't technically achieve.” He noted, nevertheless, that following criticism from the European Commission for the small share of renewables in the draft National Climate and Energy Plan (20.8% compared with the required 23%, the Czech Republic had agreed to increase its commitment to 22%. He also confirmed that support would continue for small sola plants. “We will support them, there will be enough structural funds between 2021 and 2028 for a green and smart economy. … Money can go to small photovoltaic power plants on the roofs, we will be happy to support it. But not to big plants.
