“Nuclear is back”. These are the words of Dr Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) delivering his keynote address at the World Nuclear Exhibition in Paris.
Birol bases his assertion on IEA data showing nuclear generation has reached its highest ever level at a time when 70 GW of new nuclear construction is underway worldwide. This is the highest seen in the last three decades. Furthermore, Birol cites the fact that 40 nuclear newcomer nations are now exploring the nuclear opportunity with a view to building nuclear power plants.
Birol also highlighted three major drivers that are supporting the reinvigoration of the nuclear market. In the first instance, Birol points to energy security with geographical sensitivities prompting many governments to build a more robust domestic energy system based on renewables but underpinned by nuclear power which “emerges as a reliable energy generation source”. The second driver is the need to address climate change in which “nuclear power is an important instrument”. Finally, Birol suggests the world is entering the age of electricity. “This is something that we all need to understand,” he says, noting that the amount of electric consumption around the world is growing at an unprecedented rate with “demand exploding, even in Europe, where electricity demand was flat for 15 years, in the United States, Japan, it is increasing everywhere, especially emerging nations”. He suggests we are entering the age of electricity mainly as a result of three new emerging factors. Number one, he says, is artificial intelligence. “In my humble view, artificial intelligence might be the most consequential technological innovation of humanity and the counties with a lot of electricity 24/7 will be a step in front of the others in the race”. Secondly, Birol points to a global rise in air conditioning. “This is a major driver of the age of electricity,” says Birol. Finally, he cites the growth of electric vehicles as another major source of electricity demand growth.
“In my view, nuclear has a golden opportunity to make this come back, to see a golden age of nuclear not seen since the 70s and 80s.” However, Birol also warns that to achieve such a goal, a number of issues must be overcome by the industry.
“On average in most countries in the world, nuclear power plants finish with eight years of delay and the final cost passes 2.5 times higher than the cost estimated in the beginning”. He says the nuclear industry needs to deliver on time and budget. He also highlights a lack of diversity in the nuclear supply chain and in particular the fuel cycle. “Uranium production and enrichment is concentrated in a very few countries,” says Birol, calling for more diversification to improve security. Finally, Birol identifies licensing and regulatory controls as a barrier to nuclear development, particularly in relation to emerging technologies such as SMRs.
